Data Analyst and Lover of Baseball and Beer
By Doug Duffy | 22/02/2016
The 2016 Blue Jays will be lacking some of the international flair they’ve brought in recent years. There will be no Munenori dancing, there is no Dominican Dominance as in 2013, there won’t even be the Aussie Liam Hendriks this year. Based on the Blue Jays projected by Steamer to have a positive WAR, they will come from only four countries of birth; the United States, Dominican Republic, Canada and Mexico.
The data in the AL/NL Preview shows that the Blue Jays are projected to receive the most WAR from Canadian born players, barely edging out the Reds led by Joey Votto. Russell Martin (East York, ON) leads The Canadian Blue Jay contingent, with the projected outfield platoon of Michael Saunders (Victoria, BC) and Dalton Pompey (Mississauga, ON) accounting for 0.8 WAR each. However, the Dominican bashers, Jose Bautista (Santo Domingo) and Edwin Encarnacion (La Romana), are expected to eclipse the Canadians with a full 6.9 WAR between them. The three Mexican players are all pitchers, with many Blue Jay fans recognizing Roberto Osuna (Juan Jose Rios, Sinaloa) and Marco Estrada (Sonora) as prominent 2015 Mexican Jays. They are projected to be joined this year by Arnold Leon’s 0.1 WAR (Culiacan, Sinaloa).
The Blue Jays are projected to have an infield that is defensively dominated by American players. If one considers Encarnacion as the DH (you really should), every infielder will be an American. Given the prevalence of Californians and Floridians in the MLB it should come as little surprise that these two states are projected to supply the Jays with over 40% of their WAR (16.4 of 38.4 Total WAR). The next closest states or provinces account for less than half the WAR of California or Florida. Josh Donaldson out of Pensacola leads the Sunshine state crew, paired with Devon Travis (West Palm Beach) and Drew Hutchison (Lakeland). The California crew is composed of Troy Tulowitzki (Santa Clara) and Kevin Pillar (West Hills), with a pair of pitchers Jesse Chavez (Victorville) and Aaron Sanchez (Barstow). The other prominent American pitchers are projected to be Marcus Stroman (Medford, NY), J.A. Happ (Peru, IL), R.A. Dickey (Nashville, TN) and Brett Cecil (Dunkirk, MD).